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Many serious sports bettors consider the futures wager the province of rank amateurs trying to go for the big killing. They’re the sports betting equivalent of the wanna-be stock investor who always gripes if only I had bought Microsoft when they went public. They’re not the type who’ll do the work to grind out profits in the market, nor are they forward thinking enough to find the next big company to go public. They’d rather lay some money on a high priced dog and hope for the best, which seldom (if ever) occurs. Right now at some sportsbooks a $100 bet on the Cincinnati Bengals to win the 2010 Superbowl will pay back $10,000. The problem is that the true odds of Cincinnati winning the Superbowl are probably in the range of 50,000 to 1 which makes the +10000 you’re getting in this bet a bad value from the get-go.

Even for the more pragmatic bettor, the inherent problems with futures wagers are readily apparent. You have to tie up your wagering capital for a long time. More significantly, once your bet is down you’re at the mercy of the countless interceding events that can influence the fortunes of a sports team. Its hard enough trying to weigh the significance of scheduling, injuries, personnel movement and so forth on a day to day basis. Controlling for all of these variables over an entire season is impossible.

Despite their downsides, futures bets have an important place in the investment oriented sports bettor’s arsenal. The ‘prime directive’ for serious sports betting is to think of it not in terms of wins and losses, but in terms of value. Futures wagers frequently present opportunities to lock in line value and create overlay situations. In some cases, judicious use of futures can produce situations in which a bettor can realize a profit from any outcome! Below are some basic concepts for properly using futures wagers to maximize value.

Futures can present an opportunity to ‘earn’ a greater value on certain bets. For example, it has become common for sports books to take action on entertainment events like the Academy Awards. By paying close attention to Hollywood gossip and entertainment news, a bettor can actually have a better take on these outcomes than the bookmaker.

Some books even take bets on the major awards like ‘Best Picture’ and ‘Best Director’ before the nominations are actually announced. In this situation, a bettor who can read the ‘buzz’ on which films will be nominated can find substantially better values before the nominations are announced.

The nature of the film industry makes using a future wager in this manner very attractive. The release schedule of films is established in advance and is publicly known. The cut off date for award consideration is the end of the calendar year, so nothing can pop up and become a surprise after that. Of the hundreds of films that are released each year only a handful are legit Oscar contenders and with some work its easy to narrow those down further. After that its just a matter of finding the value.

Taking a position for profit: Now well turn our attention to sports and how to use the futures wager there. As I noted above, sports inherently presents more variables than the film industry. Furthermore, the top teams are usually not priced for value. Currently you can get +650 on New England to eventually win the 2010 Superbowl. The Patriots are certainly capable of winning, but the value just isn’t there.

To find value on this sort of wager you need to look for ‘dark horse’ candidates. For example, at midseason you could have bet on the Carolina Hurricanes to win the 2009 Stanley Cup at prices as high as 25/1 or 30/1. Now, they’re one of four teams remaining and are priced at 5/1 to 7/1 depending on the book.

This play didn’t necessitate a crystal ball or a Canadien genie with a profound interest in hockey–instead, it was a simple matter of determining teams that offered true odds of championship success that were lower than the price offered in the future bet. At prices like 25/1 or 40/1 its possible to back several dark horse ‘candidates’ and if one or more enjoy postseason success it presents a number of opportunities to hedge and guarantee a profit.

Don’t forget the field. Many bettors dismiss plays on the field in a futures wager out of hand, thinking that the wager represents all of the entrants not good enough to justify an individual price. If you pay attention, however, you can frequently use a field wager to your advantage. Shortly after Dale Earnhardt’s tragic death at the 2001 Daytona 500 I found a sportsbook that was offering a field wager on the NASCAR rookie of the year award at 15/1. Richard Childress Racing hadn’t officially announced Harvick as the fulltime replacement for Earnhardt, but the word on the streets strongly suggested that would be the case. I knew that Harvick was a talented young driver (he was the 2000 Busch Series rookie of the year), but the unique situation with a rookie driving for one of the best financed and most experienced teams in the sport was too good to pass up. I made the bet on Harvick at just the right time, since after he was announced as the replacement for Earnhardt the line dropped to 5/1. After he won his first race (in his third race) the line dropped to 2/1 and by mid season the field was a -250 chalk.

This is obviously a best case example, but there have been similar circumstances that were still good value plays but didn’t work out perfectly like the Harvick situation. Several years ago it wasn’t uncommon to find a field bet on NASCAR road races that allowed you to bet several of the road course specialists like Ron Fellows, Boris Said and Scott Pruett with one bet. You wont be able to take advantage of the field bet often, but if you keep your eyes open and think out of the box it can be very profitable when it does occur.

Of course its crucial to shop around for any futures book play to find the best price. It’s a smart thing to do on any wagering proposition, but the price differential on futures wagers often vary widely from book to book. A little bit of work can produce a significantly better price which means more value.

Ross Everett is a well known writer specializing in sports handicapping, wombat racing, travel and fencing. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is in charge of providing daily free sports picks to a number of Internet and broadcast media outlets. He lives in Las Vegas with three dogs and a wombat.

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Among the sports betting public there\’s a lot of conflicting opinions about betting NFL preseason games. That\’s not really surprising, since there doesn\’t seem to be much middle ground on the subject. Overly cautious handicappers would argue that preseason football is a poor wagering opportunity. Some of the more obnoxious tout services would have you believe that short of a fixed game there is no greater \”lock\” that preseason football. Like most things that produce such polarized opinions, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. Preseason NFL football is a unique proposition for the sports gambler, but when approached with caution, discipline and knowledge it can yield some profit.

The opponent of preseason wagering would suggest that its a bad wagering opportunity by its very nature alone–simply stated, the games don\’t count meaning that the motivation and focus of individual teams is always in question. It\’s hard enough to identify teams that are in a desirable \’spot\’ during the regular season, the often conflicting agendas of personnel evaluation, playbook testing, and injury prevention found in the preseason makes it impossible. All told, this uncertainty makes it very undesirable to get financially involved with preseason NFL games.

The preseason NFL betting enthusiast would suggest, however, that it is the uncertainty that characterizes these games that makes for such a strong wagering opportunity. For example, in a matchup between a championship level team and a losing team you often see strongly divergent approaches to the game. Successful teams have more to worry about in terms of player injuries, fewer areas in which they need to evaluate talent, and more continuity in the areas of coaching and team chemistry. They often view preseason games as a chore, and have little interest in their outcome as long as they keep their superstars healthy.

Now, lets look at the other side of the equation. A \”lesser\” team by regular season standards might have a number of starting spots or key backup spots up for grabs. They may have new coaches to impress, or new offensive or defensive coordinators whose schemes they\’ll have to implement. Certainly, winning any games\”whether or not they count in the standings\”are of utmost importance to losing teams trying to turn things around. Finally, a bad team can gain a lot more psychologically from beating a playoff team than the playoff team can from beating a doormat. A struggling team that is destined to lose a lot during the regular season won\’t have a lot of bright spots, so a preseason win against one of the league\’s elite can mean a lot more.

Even teams that put a low priority on preseason games don\’t want to lose them all. For this reason, a longterm winning situation has been to bet on teams that lose their first two preseason games outright. Over the past twenty years, 0-2 teams in this spot have produced a winning percentage right around 60%.

There may be no greater determining factor of a team\’s preseason success than the philosophy of their head coach. Some coaches just don\’t like to lose *any* game, and usually these hyper-competitive teams are good preseason bets. Bill Parcells, for example, was legendary for his serious approach to preseason games. The coaches that he mentored like the NY Giants\’ Tom Coughlin have to some extent carried on this legacy. While the \”good\” preseason coaches are often reflected in the pointspreads assigned to their team, a motivated team is almost always worth a look.

One of the best tools that a handicapper has at his disposal during the preseason is the Internet. Actually, it\’s a great tool year round but during the preseason it is invaluable. The best source of information on coaching philosophies, game plans, injuries, lineup changes, etc, are the local sports pages of NFL teams. Basically, the situation during preseason is that there is a lot of interest in the team and a lot of anxious beat writers looking to write stories. The problem is that there is little in the way of real news, and for that reason you\’ll find the sort of minutiae on teams and players from which you can often extract relevant handicapping information. Even if there aren\’t any nuggets of handicapping gold, you can at least get a feel for the coach\’s goals for the game and the amount of playing time that key players will see. Sometimes coaches will come right out and say who will play at what juncture of the game, and will occasionally go on record that personnel decisions like evaluating all of the guys they\’re considering for the backup defensive secondary jobs are more important than winning. Clearly, operating with this knowledge is a distinct advantage and operating without it can be fatal. There\’s nothing more frustrating than betting on a team only to have them look like they could care less whether or not they win the game. During the preseason, however, it can frequently be prevented with some simple research and analysis.

In conclusion, there are certainly strong opportunities for profit in NFL preseason wagering but its essential to understand that it cannot be approached in the same manner as the regular season. And, as always, its important to remember that there will be more strong opportunities down the road and that discipline and rigor in handicapping is just as crucial in the preseason NFL as it is at any other time of the year.

Ross Everett is a experienced freelance writer specializing in travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, falconry and deep sea diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.

Not long after his demolition of Japanese pop culture icon Bob Sapp, former WWE superstar turned MMA fighter Bobby Lashley announced that he had signed a deal to return to full time professional wrestling competition with the US #2 promotion TNA. Lashleys last in-ring pro wrestling appearance came in Mexico on a show for Lucha Libre promotion AAA.

Hes not planning to give up his MMA career. Lashley trains in Florida with the prestigious American Top Team, and ran his record to 4-0 with his victory over Sapp in late June. A press release issued by TNA this morning further validated his suggestions that he planned to do both sports. Lashey himself is quoted as saying:

I want to do both because I can. TNA is giving me the opportunity to compete in both sports which I have a passion for. I will bring MMA fans to wrestling and wrestling fans to MMA

TNA President Dixie Carter also praised Lashley in announcing the signing:

This is a great opportunity for Bobby to do something that has never been done before. He is the perfect ambassador for both sports. We are excited to have him join TNA, he is a true star that brings so much to the table as a member of our roster.

TNAs claims that Lashley is the first active MMA fighter to compete full time in pro wrestling, however, is nothing but hyperbole. Its very common in Japan, though the Japanese fans for whatever reason are better able to compartmentalize an athlete competing in shoot fights like MMA while simultaneously appearing in worked (eg: pre-determined) pro wrestling contests. In fact, Josh Barnett, originally slated to face Fedor Emelianenko at the ill fated Affliction: Trilogy event still makes several appearances a year for Antonio Inokis Inoki Genome Federation (IGF) promotion. Lashley isnt even the first to pull the feat in the US, though hes definitely the highest profile fighter/wrester to turn the trick since MMAs overwhelming boom in popularity. Dan The Beast Severn at one point simultaneously held the UFC heavyweight title and the NWA heavyweight title in pro wrestling.

Lashley abruptly left the WWE in early 2008 under some degree of controversy. He indicated at the time that his departure was not of his own volition but due to circumstances beyond his control. Making this assertion more curious was the fact that Lashley had been used in high profile storylines by the WWE and was very popular among fans. Unlike most wrestlers leaving the promotion Lashley wasnt subject to a standard non-compete agreement. There has been speculation that he may have left in response to a racial incident, though neither Lashley nor the WWE has ever confirmed the reason for his departure.

At the time he was released from the WWE, Lashley began training for MMA building on an extensive background of amateur wrestling from both college and the military. The UFC took a pass on Lashley due to the perception that they couldnt market him successfully so soon after Brock Lesnars debut. Lashley certainly has the physical gifts to compete at the highest level in MMA at 63 and 250 lbs. Some even suggest that he may have more potential than Lesnar due to a possible edge in speed and agility. Lesnars recent unification of the UFC heavyweight title and amazing surge in mainstream popularity may give the promotion reason to take a second look at Lashley\”they need credible opponents for their new heavyweight champion, but have to be careful not to put him in a position where his inexperience in certain components of MMA wont be exploited lest they kill the proverbial golden goose.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and noted authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

The Kentucky Derby takes place every year on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May. This is a race that many people follow and try to handicap even if theyre not typically horse racing enthusiasts. Understanding race horses is hard work, and a discipline unto itself.

A true fluency in horse racing takes extensive study, but here are a few concepts that can help anyone better understand and enjoy the Kentucky Derby. Until recently, the Derby was a race dominated by the favorite. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in 1979, however, you can count the favorites whove won the race on one hand with fingers left over. In other words, the easiest way to pare down the field for a horse racing novice is to simply eliminate the popular favorite from consideration.

In all fairness, it should be noted that the favorite has been a historically strong proposition. In the 135 Kentucky Derby races the post time favorite has placed in the money at a 69% clip over the history of the race. So why have the favorites been on such a money losing run in the past two decades? My personal theory is that it is a function of the growing hype surrounding the race\”in other words, you get a lot of amateur horse racing fans that distort the notion of the favorite being the most likely to win the race. The most hyped horse becomes the favorite, but this is not always the best horse. In any case, though it could be argued that the anti-favorite bias could be due for a turnaround, for the purpose of understanding this particular race Im going to forget about the post time favorite.

Another important component of Kentucky derby success is the post position of the horses. The innermost positions (1 through 5) have produced over 40% of all Derby winners, while the outer post positions (11 through 20) have had only 13% winners. Note that in some years there might not be that many horses in the race, which would help partially explain the poor performance of the outer start positions. Still, for the purposes of understanding a single race eliminating all of the less favorable start positions is a good idea.

A horse\’s lineage and breeding is also an important factor in the race. While this may be the most complex and demanding area of horse racing, there is a simple rule of thumb that can help a novice for this race. Most high level race horses are born in Kentucky. Well over 80% of Derby winners have also been born in the Bluegrass State. So just eliminate all horses that weren\’t born in Kentucky. Then consider a horse\’s gender and eliminate any horse that isn\’t an intact male (geldings and fillies). Over 90% of all Derby winners have been intact males, though a gelding did win the race in 2003 (Funny Cide). For the horse racing novice, however,this is another good way to pare down the field.

Don\’t forget to consider dosage index numbers. These are a complex mathematical formula that measures a horse\’s breeding lineage plus his past performance. You want to look for horses with a dosage index of 4.00 or less–over half of Derby winners have met this criteria since dosage numbers came into common usage in the mid 1980\’s.

For a more serious introduction to horse racing, check out the many books available on the subject at any large bookstore. For a casual fan who just follows the \’big races\’ these rules will help you get a decent grasp on the Kentucky Derby and understand who will win and why.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and World Cup betting sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

The founding father of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and patriarch of the Gracie family, Helio Gracie, died in early 2009 at the age of 95. His influence in martial arts as well as the sport of mixed martial arts is mind boggling. The Gracie family name will forever be synonymous with Brazilian sports, jiu-jitsu, MMA and the UFC\”not only due to Helios own accomplishments but the legacy he created both by training others and through his family.

Helio Gracie began training in judo early in life, and by the age of 16 had already begun to teach others in his native Brazil. He was bothered by judo\’s reliance on \’brute strength\’, however, and along with his brother Carlos began to adapt many of its forms to a new fighting system more reliant on leverage than strength. This prompted the creation of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (BJJ), frequently called Gracie Jiu Jitsu in his honor.

Gracie also had a professional fighting career, taking on champions from other disciplines in a forerunner to modern mixed martial arts. These bouts were grueling, unregulated affairs with rules that were often made up as they went along and time limits that seem barbaric by todays standards. By his own recollection, he had 15 fights against the top fighters of his day. He began his career in\’32 by submitting professional boxer Antonio Portugal (whod likely never even heard of a submission at that point, let alone experienced one) in just 32 seconds. Later that year, he fought American catch wrestler Frank Ebert to a draw after the ringside doctor ordered the bout stopped after an ungodly fourteen ten minute rounds.

His most famous battle was against Japanese judo legend Masahiko Kimura, resulting in a rare loss for Gracie. Despite the setback, he fought bravely and may have actually enhanced his legend after refusing to submit to a reverse arm bar (the same move that now bears Kimuras name). Only after his arm was broken did his brother Carlos throw in the towel.

Helio Gracie\’s impact on fight sports and mixed martial arts would continue through his offspring. Married twice, he had seven sons (Rickson, Royler, Rolker, Royce, Relson, Robin and Rorion) and two daughters (Rerika and Ricci), many of whom went on to make their own mark on the fight sport world. Royce Gracie is well known as the first UFC superstar, while sons Rickson Royler, Renzo have also achieved considerable fame in professional MMA.

The cause of Gracies death was officially given as natural causes. He had been having stomach problems for several days prior to his passing, and was admitted to a Rio hospital for this reason. His seriously epic last words will go down as a fitting envoi to a man who gave so much of himself to fighting:

Gracie\’s last words are as follows:\”I created a flag from the sports dignity. I oversee the name of my family with affection and nerves of blood.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance sports writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

The Federal ban on sports betting has been blasted by anyone who knows anything about the subject for a number of different reasons. Though the US professional leagues suggest that sports betting threatens the integrity of their games, the opposite is the case. The professional bookmaking industry is usually where any type of compromised or fixed game is discovered. Ultimately, the best case for legal sports betting is Constitutional.

Unfortunately, the Congress of the United States has shown very little respect for the Constitution in recent years. Were it to abide strictly by the role outlined for it by the founding fathers, the Legislative Branch of our government would have to relinquish any number of its powers in a variety of areas. The primary problem with our Congress is that it has increasingly become a collection of career politicians rather than a body representative of its constituency. As a result, the overriding concern of the average Senator or Congressman is increasing the power that he is able to wield, and as a result the power that his body is able to bring to bear.

The Federal prohibition of sports wagering which was enacted a few years back is of very dubious Constitutionality. Were it not for the grandfather clause, which allowed it to remain legal in jurisdictions in which it already existed, it would have certainly been struck down as unconstitutional on a number of different fronts.

Unfortunately, the mere fact that a proposed law or initiative is unconstitutional offers little protection for the citizenry. In fact one of the most important concepts in the Constitution”that of the right to sovereignty and self-determination of the individual states”is one of the most frequently abused. For those of you not up on the Constitution (and if youre not, you certainly should be), lets consider the 10th Amendment:

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.

The overriding concern of the writers and framers of the Constitution was that the personal liberty of the individual not be violated by a too-powerful central government. In other words, unless the power in question has been expressly given to the Federal government by the Constitution, and/or unless it has expressly been prohibited to the states (as in the case of treaty making) it is the right of each individual state to govern themselves as they see fit. If an individual state chooses not to regulate a certain activity, it is the right of each individual citizen to make their own decision.

So, you should be asking yourself at this point, where exactly does the Constitution delegate to the Federal government the right to make policy on sports gambling? The answer is that it doesnt, and it is very questionable that they have the Constitutional authority to do so. The sanctimonious blowhards who oppose sports betting would like to think they know best, but fortunately for all freedom loving Americans the founding fathers would beg to differ.

The entire premise of a social contract between a government and the governed is that individuals give up a certain degree of personal liberty for a certain degree of protection. The problem is that too many Americans are willing to give up just about any freedom for even the illusory promise of protection. If theyre not personally willing to cede this freedom, theyre often indifferent or unconcerned about it. The danger to broader concepts of personal liberty may seem a million miles away, but with each additional law intended to protect us from this or that the Federal government becomes larger and more powerful and the rights of the sovereign states”and the individuals that comprise them”are shrinking and being weakened.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer experienced in travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and scuba diving. He lives in Southern Nevada with four dogs and a pet coyote.

Sports book futures bets are an increasing popular and potentially profitable way to wager on the outcome of a full season. There’s a few common mistakes that novice players make that can be easily avoided by paying attention to the following:

Search for the best price: A common mistake is to assume that the price on a specific futures wager position will be the same at every sportsbook. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, you’ll often see a greater degree of difference between futures prices from book to book than any other form of bet. This is because that books aren’t as worried about what price other outfits are offering as they are about keeping their own financial position balanced.

Don’t fixate on picking the winner from a competitive field: This may sound like strange advice, but from a theoretical standpoint it makes perfect sense. As with every other element of sport wagering its crucial to always focus not on winners and losers, but on the value you’re getting on individual bets. For example, in most years there are several teams with a realistic shot of winning at the start of the NCAA basketball tournament. The problem is that these top teams invariably offer low paybacks that are less than their ‘true odds’ of winning. Every team is subject to the same variables like injuries, slumps, bad matchups but backing teams that are ‘under the radar’ at higher prices offer more compensation for these ‘risks’.

In mathematical terms, we’re simply not being offered odds on a favorite that offer a good value in comparison with the ‘true odds’ of the event occurring. Let’s say we bet Duke at +200 to win the NCAA tournament. If we could magically play the NCAA tournament over 100 times, would Duke come out on top more than 33 times? If not, they’re a poor value at the price. At a higher price, I might be interested but at +200 the value is simply not there.

In a less competitive field, there can be instances where even a big favorite is a good value. For example, lets say a book was to take action on a bikini contest between a Victoria’s Secret supermodel and three members of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The model would essentially be a 100% probability to win the contest, meaning that even a high chalk price would be a good value. Risking a lot of money to win a little is a tough thing to justify, however, even if the math makes sense.

Don’t try to make a huge profit with little risk: Sports betting provides few opportunities to make a ‘big killing’. It may happen occasionally, but even the big payouts when it occurs doesn’t make chasing big longshots a good value. If you’re serious about sports betting it is crucial to maintain your focus on the underlying numbers and look for value at all times. If you want to take a longshot at a huge jackpot, play the lottery but don’t try to do it at a sportsbook.

On a more theoretical level, a big price alone is no way to justify a wager. The concept of value works the same at the bottom of the barrel as it does at the top: make sure the price you’re getting on an underdog accurately reflects their “true odds” of winning.

Don’t bet one sided props: Sometimes sports books will offer silly bets just to get publicity or in some cases just to be funny. While there may be life on other planets, the ‘true odds’ of a Martian being named to President Obama’s cabinet wouldn’t justify a +5000 line that it would occur.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and noted authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas, Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.